Bland Old Party

To win the White House, the GOP needs a candidate with that old Ronald Reagan appeal. So far, that person hasn't surfaced.
Practice makes perfect. President Barack Obama finally has shot a hole-in-one.
The chief executive's takedown of elusive terrorist kingpin Osama bin Laden was a bold, brilliant stroke. Euphoria rippled through the populace. The president's Gallup poll approval numbers among likely voters popped six points, to 52%, his best showing in 12 months. The increase came exclusively from Republicans and independents.
Meanwhile, the long line of suspected Republican 2012 presidential challengers remains deep in the rough, unable to generate excitement among its party's base, let alone the public at large. In fact, the Grand Old Party is desperately seeking someone with both substance and Reagan-like charisma to inspire the electorate. Just who might that be?
Definitely not branding expert Donald Trump, the current alpha dog because his name is clearly recognized, according to the surveys, by about 98% of probable voters. Lest the egotistical celebrity businessman let that impressive number go to his golden hair, 46% of likely GOP voters tell pollsters that they wouldn't vote for him. Furthermore, according to a Rasmussen Poll, 61% of probable voters believe that The Donald is a mere publicity hound, not a serious candidate. In addition, his recognition number barely noses out that of moose-baiting Sarah Palin, who rates a 96%, and, like Trump, hasn't officially filed as a candidate.
So could this perhaps be Ron Paul's year? Not likely. His campaigns have become comic relief. How about Newt Gingrich, who officially entered the race Wednesday? Unlikely. He's running on a House track record more than a decade old. In addition, American voters are ballot-box hypocrites. They're likely to hold Newt's messy personal life against him, even though studies show that most Americans lead very messy lives.
The frisson generated by both the coy and the declared GOP hopefuls is so feeble that former McCain campaign advisor Doug Holtz-Eakin quips, ruefully: "Republicans have cornered the market on vice-presidential candidates." In short, while it does have some polarizing characters, including Palin and Gingrich, the Grand Old Party now finds itself the Bland Old Party.

BARRING A NATIONAL CATASTROPHE–like another deep recession–over the next 18 months, only one potential Republican candidate seems to have the credentials to turn the contest into a horse race: brainy Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who is undeclared. He cut taxes and ran government like a business, eliminating wasteful spending and a state budget deficit that had persisted for seven years. When Obama won Indiana in 2008, Daniels, seeking a second term, got more votes than any politician in the state's history.
Indiana currently has $1 billion in reserves. It's also one of nine states with triple-A credit ratings from all three major agencies. (The others are Iowa, Missouri, Utah, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.) But in an era dominated by superficiality, Daniels has a charisma problem. Democrats deride the five-foot-seven governor as a policy wonk -- "the GOP's Dukakis." There are plenty of photos of Daniels on the Web wearing silly-looking helmets because he likes to ride his Harley-Davidson when visiting constituents. Daniels also has a messy personal story, including his wife, Cheri, who ditched him and their four young daughters in 1994, moving to California to wed a former high-school sweetheart. Daniels divorced her, but remarried her when she returned several years later. Cheri, by most accounts, is reluctant to have this episode endlessly autopsied in the tabloids and on TV and the 'Net -- a certainty if Daniels tosses his helmet into the ring.
If the election were held now, Obama would win, hands down, regardless of his challenger. The bin Laden raid has cast him as a decisive, resolute commander-in-chief, rather than the "vacillator-in-chief" who, critics say, led weakly after last summer's BP oil spill and, more recently, was late to the debate led by Republican Rep. Paul Ryan over the best way to reduce the federal deficit and overhaul entitlements.
Obama also has reinvigorated his party base, particularly the African-Americans, college students and Hispanics who helped him into office in 2008. He can't win without their enthusiastic support.
However, the vote isn't being held today, so an Obama victory, while probable, isn't a sure thing. A Gallup poll taken after the bin Laden raid found that, given a choice between the president and an unnamed Republican, 43% of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for Obama and 40% are more likely to vote for the Republican -- essentially unchanged from polls in February and April.
That poll actually provides more hope for the GOP than a CNN/Opinion Research survey released on May 5 and taken before the raid. It found that, in a race against Obama, Paul would trail by seven percentage points; ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee would be beaten by eight points; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by 11, Gingrich by 17, Palin by 19 and Trump by 22. (Friday, there were reports that Huckabee might drop out of the race over the weekend.)
Daniels wasn't included, but he could be a more daunting challenger in a general election. Certainly, the president would face a much more competitive contest than he did in 2008 when his agile tongue propelled him into the White House over John McCain. Obama is such a highly divisive president -- loved by many hard-core Democrats, disliked by many hard-core Republicans -- that his bin Laden triumph eventually may take a back seat to the larger issue of Washington's proper role in the economy and the citizenry's personal lives. Says Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin: "This will be a 'decision election,' with voters making a fundamental choice about the direction of the country."
Obama said much the same on May 11 at a Democratic Party event in Austin, Texas: "The debate is not just about numbers. It's about who are we, what do we believe. And the debate that we're having now in Washington is actually very instructive and I'm glad we're having it, because [Republican Rep.] Paul Ryan put forward a budget that is reflective; it is sort of the logical conclusion to the Republican argument that's been going on for a number of years. And essentially what they're talking about is cutting education by 25%, cutting transportation spending by 30%, cutting clean-energy investments by 70%, voucherizing Medicare, slashing Medicaid -- fundamentally reworking our social compact."

OBAMA'S DECISION TO ATTACK bin Laden's compound was very risky. Failure would have guaranteed him a one-term presidency, just as Jimmy Carter's botched rescue attempt of American embassy hostages in Iran did in April 1980. Following that fiasco, which cost the lives of eight U.S. commandos, polls indicated that Carter was more disliked by probable voters than Richard Nixon was at the Watergate scandal's apex.
Even before the assault by Seal Team Six, defeating Obama was problematic for the GOP. Says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics: "In all of American history, incumbent presidents who have sought another term have won re-election by a popular vote margin of 2.5-to-1. So the odds automatically favor the incumbent." As he puts it: "It takes a long time before people are prepared to take the devil they don't know, rather than the devil they do know."
Republican pollster Scott Rasmussen says that if Obama's approval rating stays above 50%, he'll probably win: "If his ratings are below 45%, then he will lose. And if it is between 45% and 50%, then the election will be close."

THE ABSENCE OF AN INSPIRATIONAL GOP presidential aspirant is a big plus for Obama. Of course, it's still early in the game. Voters haven't yet gotten to know many of the prospects, other than round-the-clock political-media stars like Huckabee, Palin and Gingrich; nor are they overly interested yet in presidential politics. To them, Herman Cain, who's never held political office, is primarily a pizza guy. Gary Johnson is the former governor of New Mexico? Most voters don't know nor care. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has a fine fiscal record. But his name is hard to pronounce -- it's PUH-lenti -- he doesn't deliver a rousing stump speech and he's from that state that elected wrestler Jesse Ventura governor and comedian Al Franken senator.
Generally, voters don't become interested in nominees until the party primaries get under way. That won't happen until February 2012. And, historically, a clear winner doesn't emerge from these contests until early March. This go-around, a winner might not become evident until much later. When John McCain won the nomination, a Republican victor in a state primary captured all of the state's convention delegates. This year, some states will be allowed to award delegates on a proportional basis. That will let second- and third-place finishers walk away with delegates and will encourage them to remain in the race much longer. Democrats used such a system in 2008, and it let Hillary Clinton engage in a bruising battle with Obama right up to the national convention. They still use it.
This rule change might swell the pack of candidates as well. Don't be surprised to see former diplomat John Bolton on the campaign trail. Or Rep. Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan, a young Republican with a conservative fan club.
Some pundits view Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney as the GOP's favorites, having finished second and third in delegates to John McCain in the 2008 GOP primaries. Romney seems more polished than he did then. Tapes of his speeches tempt a viewer to believe he has found an acting coach to teach him some Ronald Reagan-like mannerisms.
But Romney's polling numbers, which currently put him even with Huckabee, are unimpressive. Says Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, one of Obama's favorite outside advisors: "Given Romney's standing, his popularity and [some] people's determination to defeat Obama, I would have thought that Romney's numbers would be much more dominant."
In 2007, Barron'sidentified Romney as the candidate whose policies would most likely benefit the stock market. His health-care plan aside, he pared government spending and cut taxes in the Bay State. He's a successful venture capitalist and businessman, who appreciates the dynamism of free markets. His religion weighs against him, however, in some early primary states like Iowa where evangelical Christians who are suspicious of Mormons are active in the GOP. That's why Romney doesn't campaign there much. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, another Mormon, with leading-man looks and a vast family fortune, also might enter the race. He's a moderate and might trigger a revolt among party conservatives. Some insiders say his entry would engender a draft-Jeb-Bush movement by conservatives. The former Florida governor, who publicly has shown no interest in running for the White House, reduced taxes, expanded the Sunshine State's economy, and is popular among Hispanics, a large voting bloc that usually leans Democratic.
"The only argument against Jeb Bush is that his brother was president and is associated with the current [fiscal] mess," says Grover Norquist, executive director of Americans for Tax Reform.
In 2008, Romney's flip-flopping on major social issues, such as abortion and immigration, eroded his credibility. He seems to be flip-flopping again -- on the health-insurance plan he passed in Massachusetts, which looks a lot like Obamacare. But Romney says he would repeal Obamacare because it's one-size-fits-all, and each state should build its own insurance system. As for Romneycare, which Obamacare copied to some extent, he says it was right for Massachusetts, not necessarily right for the nation.
Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister, tends to poll well in states such as Iowa, Georgia and Alabama. He's a social conservative, opposing abortion and gay marriage. In 2008, he called himself a "Main Street Republican" and derided Romney as a "Wall Street Republican." But he came out in favor of replacing the federal income tax with a consumption tax, which his opponents said would hurt Main Street. His economic record as governor in Arkansas was spotty. The libertarian Cato Institute gave him a D rating for "raising taxes at almost every turn." Huckabee counters that he lowered 94 taxes and fees, but was forced by the state supreme court to raise revenue for Arkansas's schools.
Another potential candidate, Tea Party favorite Michelle Bachman, could run up some votes in Iowa because of her fiscal conservatism and evangelical Christian credentials. The Minnesota congresswoman, however, has little mass-market appeal. Her speaking skills are arguably high-school level at best and her shrill, hard, angry edge is hardly endearing. A much better speaker, Sarah Palin, would have a shot at winning some early primaries if she runs, but alienates as many voters as she attracts. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, another social conservative, also could do well in the primaries, even though he has no fiscal track record to speak of.

BUT IT'S UNLIKELY that any of them could unseat Obama.
Democratic demographers Morley Winograd and Michael Hais say that surveys of average Republicans and so-called independents (who in reality consistently lean toward the GOP) find that 49% agree with the Tea Party, a movement founded to promote low taxes and smaller government. In a book being published this fall, the two will report that 60% of Tea Party supporters identify with the Christian conservative movement and view the U.S. as a Christian nation. So they'll judge candidates on both their social and fiscal stances.
Pollster Garin claims that 60% of the Republicans who participate in the nominating process will be Tea party sympathizers. So, "candidates who might seem acceptable in a general election context will first have to run the gantlet of passing muster with the most conservative element of the party." That could eliminate Republican hopefuls who have a real chance of attracting votes from the broader electorate. Tea Party members who stick to economic issues do well. But when they elaborate on social issues, they get into trouble with voters at large. "You can argue that the Tea Party in 2010 cost the Republicans three Senate races -- Nevada, Colorado and Delaware," asserts Garin
Daniels might, in fact, be the one GOP candidate with broad appeal within -- and maybe outside -- his party. Besides shrinking Indiana's government, he ended collective-bargaining rights for state employees and forbade the use of state funds for Planned Parenthood. And, under trying circumstances, he preserved his family. "He's as good as Reagan," says GOP fund-raiser and long-time friend Rick Hohlt. "He has the Reagan touch. That's why he's so popular at home."
But in 2012, even being as good as Reagan might not be enough to defeat Obama. 

By Jim McTague  
Barron's
May 16, 2011